Hello, friends. The leaves are falling, the campaign ads are multiplying, and the projections for who will win Congress are flooding in.

Because Congress is no longer in session, I’ll be shifting my focus to the midterm elections to bring you the latest news, analysis, and more about what is happening in the political landscape — and what it means for you. Have a specific question? Drop me a line.

For this edition, I wanted to take a slight step back (but not too far back) to re-examine the midterm map. It’s changed so much just in the last two weeks, and I wanted to see how things are faring specifically in the West — and how the region is poised to help determine which party will win.

— Cami Mondeaux

Of course, the focus of this midterm cycle has been mostly focused on areas such as Texas, the Midwest, and the surprisingly-competitive Senate battle.

But there’s a lot happening in the West that will help determine which party is going to take control of the House — and it’s closer than ever.

Remember: A majority of the House is 218 seats. Right now, Republicans hold 218, Democrats hold 214 (and two vacancies) and there’s one independent, who currently caucuses with Republicans.

To win the majority, Democrats only need to net four seats. And if we look at the competitive seats that are most likely to flip — also known as the “tossup races” — there are 22.

Democrats hold just six of those right now, Republicans have to defend a whopping 16. So the advantage currently lies with Democrats, but anything can happen.

There are other competitive races in the “lean Republican” and “lean Democrat” columns, which are just one step shy from being tossups.

And several of them are in the Western region, meaning the fate of Congress could be decided in our own backyard.

The most obvious battlefield here is California, which redrew its map last year in retaliation to Texas. Both redrew congressional districts to give their parties a pick-up opportunity of five seats — but one seat is looking like much more of a slam dunk than the other.

“A big change if you’re looking at the House battleground landscape is California, of course, because when they redistricted, they really shrunk the number of competitive or even potentially competitive districts,” Erin Covey, who leads coverage of the House for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told me in an interview.

For California, Covey says it’s basically an “effective gerrymander.” Democrats will likely pick up the seats they redrew to take away from Republicans.

But — and I’m going to step away from the West for just one moment here — it’s not looking so positive in Texas. Covey predicts three of them could stay in Democratic hands.

“I think it was clear that they were very dependent on the presidential numbers in these districts to a fault, and did not properly analyze the strength of Republicans who aren’t Trump in some of these places,” she said.

So back to the West: That gives California an opportunity to not only cancel out Republican wins but actually help Democrats with their net gain. There are three seats in California that are considered competitive:

The 22nd District, which is currently held by Republican Rep. David Valadao but rated D+1; the 48th District, held by retiring Republican Rep. Darrell Issa but rated D+2; and the 13th District, held by Democratic Rep. Adam Gray and rated D+2.

Other areas they’re watching: Colorado. There are two competitive races there that are being closely watched, both held by Republicans.

District 8, which is held by Republican Rep. Gabe Evans, is rated a tossup and doesn’t have any statistical advantage for either party. The other, District 5, is held by Republican Rep. Jeff Crank and is an R+5 — so a little more wiggle room there.

There’s also a surprising pick-up opportunity for Democrats in Montana. The 1st District, currently held by the retiring Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, has gotten some national attention — and it could be closer than expected.

The race is ranked “lean Republican,” but Covey says that with the retirement of Zinke — who has long been a strong candidate and therefore has kept the seat on lock — it puts the seat in play.

“I think this cycle is probably Democrats’ best opportunity to flip the seat that they’ve at least had in like the past six years,” she said.

Between that and Crank’s district: “I think they’re both competitive races where Republicans have the edge, but they’re going to be close.”

Farther to the South, Arizona will also have some close races to keep an eye on. There’s at least one tossup district: Arizona’s 6th District, currently held by Republican Juan Ciscomani and similarly doesn’t have a statistical advantage for either party.

Elsewhere in Arizona, Republican Rep. David Schweikert is retiring and leaving open a competitive seat. It’s rated as R+1, and firmly planted in the “lean Republican” category.

Aside from all that, Utah could flip one of its four House seats after the redrawing of its maps last year. Former Rep. Ben McAdams is running in Utah’s new 1st District, which has a rating of D+12.

Now that’s a lot for Republicans to defend. But there are some seats that Democrats will need to protect too.

New Mexico’s 2nd District held by Rep. Gabe Vasquez is rated as a D+0, meaning no advantage for either party. But his seat is placed in the “lean Democrat” category, so the Cook Political Report may view him as having a better chance of hanging on.

In Nevada: Rep. Susie Lee in the 3rd District also has a battle to defend her seat, which is rated D+1.

And that’s all just in the West. It’ll be a real sprint to the finish — but so far, predictions I’ve seen have favored Democrats picking up more seats. Again, you never know until all the results are in. But this is what Covey told me:

“I think Democrats will probably have somewhere between 225 and 230 seats,” she said.

More: “The upper end of that range is probably more likely at this point, given the deteriorating political environment that we have seen even just over the past couple of weeks, and a lot of polling. It’s not like it’s impossible for (Republicans) to keep the majority, but it would be incredibly, incredibly difficult. And I don’t really see a path for them at this point.”

— Cami Mondeaux

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As we get closer to the midterms, I’m going to bring in some of my colleagues who are closer to the ground on some of these races.

Being in Washington, D.C., gives me a front-row seat to the governing and legislating — but right now, my colleagues are running all over to get you the latest on campaigning. So this week, I caught up with one of our general assignment reporters, Frizz Flake, who covered the debate for Utah’s 3rd District last week to see what she thought.

Utah Rep. Celeste Maloy faced off against Democratic challenger Kent Udell. Read Frizz’s full analysis here.

Here’s a snippet from our conversation, edited for length and clarity:

Cami Mondeaux: First, walk me through how you approached your coverage for the people who are reading but have never actually had to cover a debate. What were you looking for while you were writing this in terms of issues or things they were saying?

Frizz Flake: I tried to pay a lot of attention to things they were talking about that I know are very relevant to Utah.

I tried to mostly focus on things that I know are important to Utah, like high cost of living, AI, and data centers, because those are issues that are being talked about a ton in the state right now. National parks — I was glad they talked about that because it’s something that’s really unique to Utah, and we’ve seen different executive orders that are affecting our national parks.

I know that that’s something that Utahns do care about a lot about. Whereas, I’m from Missouri, and Missourians don’t care as much about National Parks, that doesn’t matter as much to them.

CM: What stood out to you in terms of the issues that seemed to be the most fiery — or a big issue that they needed to address? Like affordability, obviously, is going to be a big one. But what stood out to you in how they approached their answers on these big issues?

FF: I think the one that actually stood out to me the most was wildfires. That was, I think, where it got the most heated. Pun unintended.

They both had very different approaches for how to handle wildfires. Again, this is super relevant to Utah, we had such a rough summer. … They did go back and forth a lot on that one, and (Maloy) was in favor of maintaining the forest more, and (Udell) wanted to have a more hands-off approach. And so that was interesting.

As far as AI and data centers, a college student asked, ‘Is it going to replace our jobs?’ And it was interesting that neither of them really had an answer for that. … There weren’t really any policies they talked about or ideas on how to help the rising generation navigate the workforce with AI. So that was interesting. I don’t know that either of them was either very prepared to talk about that or wanted to talk about it.

Then with affordability, they had totally different explanations for the high costs, which is super interesting. … They both had different explanations for the same problem, but also they talked about why it’s happening and not necessarily what they would do to fix it.”

CM: Was there anything that you think reflects the broader midterm fight? Obviously, this is not one of the most competitive races in terms of the whole country, but it is still a microcosm to see what the issues are. Is there anything else you think reflects the broader midterm fight going on right now?

FF: I think they both pretty much align with their parties.

Like I said, they argued more about why it’s happening instead of talking about what they would do to fix it, which I also think aligns with what’s going on in the midterms. There’s a lot of finger pointing, but not a ton of ‘Here’s what we can do to fix it.’ So I thought that was interesting.

— Cami Mondeaux

From the Hill: Maloy: Parents are worried their kids ‘won’t be able to afford houses in their hometowns.’ … Rep. Burgess Owens talks education opportunities — and delivers a tenure-ending ‘pep talk’. … Where parties are spending the most — and pulling away — in tight midterm races.

From the White House: Trump Jr. returns wedding gift to Russian oligarch. … Trump’s pre-midterms travel blitz aims to highlight accomplishments. … Why this Utah Republican says Trump’s second term is ‘unrateable’.

From the courts: Christa Pike was believed to be brain dead. Then she woke up and started talking. … Supreme Court hears argument in Colorado climate case that could have implications for Utah. … Utah’s 3-judge panel faces constitutional scrutiny at state Supreme Court.

The House and Senate remain out until Nov. 9

As always, feel free to reach out to me by email with story ideas or questions you have for lawmakers. And follow me on X for breaking news and timely developments from the Hill.

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